Lies, Damn Lies, And Statistics

And yes, I assume I'm the first person ever to use that title for a blog post. Wait, the What Wing? West?

Here's Jeff writing something I think is a little off, quoting the G&M:

Overall, a majority of Canadians "agree" either strongly (19 per cent) or somewhat (38 per cent) that they consider the Liberal Party to be a "party of the past, not a party of the future," according to the poll.Among Liberal supporters, 21 per cent believe their own party is a party of the past.--Canadians as a whole seem divided on whether a new Liberal leader will make a difference: one half (52 per cent) agree that regardless of who the party chooses as its next leader, they have "pretty much written off the Liberals."

Which leads him to an existential crisi.  Here's the thing about these numbers. If 52% have "pretty much written off" the Liberals, that means we're playing for... carry the two... 48%. And even if the 57% that think the Liberal party is "of the past" can never, ever be convinced otherwise, not even if we elect a bearded leader too, why that means we can't possibly get ourselves over... 43% support. And in a first past the post system, doesn't something funny happen right around 43%?

So I don't get it.